|
Post by donkey on Sept 18, 2024 10:12:48 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by colt46 on Sept 18, 2024 11:01:48 GMT -5
All Democrats do is to refer to January 6 2021 ! Trump said to peacefully protest, not to raid the Capitol! So Democratic are smoking š¬ wakie tobacco!
|
|
|
Post by donkey on Sept 18, 2024 11:04:11 GMT -5
All Democrats do is to refer to January 6 2021 ! Trump said to peacefully protest, not to raid the Capitol! So Democratic are smoking š¬ wakie tobacco! They can't run and win on accomplishments or policies. So it's all they've got, even though it's nonsense. So, they have picked the perfect canddate...Comrade Kamala is the perfect non-serious, nonsense candidate. lol
|
|
|
Post by BOGC on Sept 18, 2024 11:54:37 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by colt46 on Sept 18, 2024 12:02:39 GMT -5
Google helping Harris, well of course they are! They are putting a thumb on the scale to help Democrats!
|
|
|
Post by BOGC on Sept 18, 2024 13:12:32 GMT -5
Democrats, most of MSM, and most of big tech are one big conspiracy to ruin western society and turn it into a communist dictatorship. Or at least a socialist slum, reduced to mere "equity" with the less fortunate of the third world. That's the problem with equity vs opportunity; equity ends up tearing down rather than building up, it can't help it because it's redistribution rather than enabling productive conduct.
No clue who runs the vast takeover attempt. Xi? Soros? Someone far better hidden? Or they just all want the same thing?
It's still anti-liberty, no matter who or why or how it's happening.
Well, part of the how is easy. For decades, the right failed to stop the left from taking over most of academia, media, and MSM. Naturally when social media emerged, they took over that too.
|
|
|
Post by donkey on Sept 18, 2024 13:34:01 GMT -5
/photo/1
|
|
|
Post by donkey on Sept 18, 2024 13:40:44 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by donkey on Sept 18, 2024 13:42:11 GMT -5
You have been in power the last four years, you freaking moron.
|
|
|
Post by donkey on Sept 18, 2024 13:43:37 GMT -5
MEGA CRINGE!!!! Imma scared!
|
|
|
Post by eulenspiegel on Sept 18, 2024 13:53:41 GMT -5
I know after 2016 predictions one has to be carefulā¦but in the momentā¦ Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? 538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes. Harris wins 63 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Trump wins 37 times out of 100. There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
|
|
|
Post by eulenspiegel on Sept 18, 2024 13:57:34 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by amg1977 on Sept 18, 2024 14:34:28 GMT -5
Since I have some experience with statistics, there is something important I want to mention when it comes to polling for elections that does not apply in any other situation: a lot of what you see in polling for today's political landscape is complete bullsh!t. That doesn't mean statistics don't work. If I have solid sample data on something that has already happened, I can make a good estimate on how it will finally end up. This happens when you see the predictions on calling a state after the polls close. It may seem that the election doesn't look that far apart but the networks will call it for a candidate and they are almost always right. There are lots of reason for this as in they know where the remaining votes are coming from and have a representative sample size to predict an outcome. For example, since I live in Pennsylvania, I'll use my own experience here. If you remember the 2016 election, the early Pennsylvania vote looked like a Hilary landslide in PA. She was up by hundreds of thousands of votes but somehow ended up losing. The reason is that the voting machines in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are electronic or at least mechanical. In rural areas, the vote is often hand tallied. So you get this initial huge lead from cities until the outlying areas check in. As the famous Democratic campaign strategist James Carville once quipped, "Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with hundreds of mile of Alabama between them." That's an overstatement but it makes the point.
Now, here's the key thing with election polling: pre-election and post-election sample polling do not tell you who they will vote for or who they have voted for in the election. Instead, they tell you who they say they are voting for and who they say they voted for in the election. Neither is necessarily who they actually voted for in the election.
It is a simple fact that when a political landscape is polarized, the election polling becomes less reliable. Some people just won't tell you the truth because they don't want to get in some political debate or argument. So they just tell you what they think you want to hear and get on with their day. Candidates have often used polls as campaign opportunities and try to "poison the well" by asking things that put the other candidate in a bad light before asking who will get your vote. They think they are potentially changing your mind but they are really just giving you a signal to give the answer they want so you can get off the damn phone. Polls like that are garbage. Not only did they not really affect your vote, but your answer is used to stand in for many other voters who never received the prompting you did. In that case, the poll is garbage.
When weighing a poll for a national election, it is important to judge the poll's accuracy over the last two presidential cycles. By judging, I mean not just the result but also the percentages of the popular vote. If they tend to veer a minimum of three points in either direction, keep that in mind. Everyone was so sure Hilary would win in 2016, but the history of some of the pollsters who were making the most outlandish predictions made clear they were partisan hacks who let their biases guide their predictions. The most reliable ones had said too close to call and left it to who got their people out on election day. That is exactly how it ended up.
|
|
|
Post by colt46 on Sept 18, 2024 14:56:39 GMT -5
I never go by polls, I think polls are slanted for Democrats in the first place!
|
|
|
Post by The Test on Sept 18, 2024 15:31:46 GMT -5
I have one question for everyone here who supports Trump.
Please answer this question: In the Harris/Trump debate, who won?
|
|