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Post by eulenspiegel on Apr 18, 2020 13:05:38 GMT -5
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Post by outlier on Apr 18, 2020 20:15:04 GMT -5
One thing that has emerged from this pandemic is an better understanding of how horribly wrong the predictions of models of complex systems can be. So the climate change models, along with their predictions have lost a great deal of credibility. As for the wall, Trump listened to the experts - the men guarding our border, and pretty much built it to their specifications. ? The models are/were on point...Trump just did not believed them...and now USA is in great ... As I said I never was a big fan of Merkel but she is a scientist..and explained it today on point... Models initially gave U.S. fatality estimates of over 2 million. Now the estimates are 60 thousand or less.
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Post by eulenspiegel on Apr 18, 2020 21:52:24 GMT -5
? The models are/were on point...Trump just did not believed them...and now USA is in great ... As I said I never was a big fan of Merkel but she is a scientist..and explained it today on point... Models initially gave U.S. fatality estimates of over 2 million. Now the estimates are 60 thousand or less. already officially 39015 ..dark numbers? ...still only 18th of April 2020...long way till next year or 2022 Yesterday a plus of 1867 death...proved officially ...dark numbers?
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Post by BOGC on Apr 18, 2020 22:57:01 GMT -5
FYI, C (and maybe D) and zinc lozenges, although they won't _prevent_ anything, have some evidence that they reduce the severity or duration of symptoms of some viral upper respiratory infections. NAC (N-Acetyl-L-Cysteine) may reduce the congestion, or help in other ways. Too much of any of them is bad. See WebMD for details. (NAC has a number of other uses too, including counteracting acetaminophen poisoning. And a possible downside or two.)
They're all cheap, and at least in the US, available without prescription in any well-stocked vitamin/supplement store. All but maybe NAC are in Walmart...although zinc lozenges may be sold out. (for awhile, C was sold out some places, but I think that was overreaction, because there are many that credit it for more than it can do)
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Post by BOGC on Apr 18, 2020 23:15:14 GMT -5
If there are as many asymptomatic carriers as this suggests, the mortality rate could be MUCH lower, still twice that of the flu, but 1/15 to 1/20 of current estimates. www.newsweek.com/covid-19-coronavirus-antibodies-infection-higher-14987400.2% of 350 million is still 70,000...but that's fairly close to the current models, and they're depending on avoidance rather than everyone getting it. The avoidance was fine for keeping hospitals from being overwhelmed, but it can't go on for months longer as it is now. What we need (until there are treatments and a vaccine) is to know more about how to identify the vulnerable. There are some indications that there's a genetic factor. With that knowledge, the focus could be on confining the vulnerable, rather than everyone.
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Post by outlier on Apr 19, 2020 22:54:04 GMT -5
Models initially gave U.S. fatality estimates of over 2 million. Now the estimates are 60 thousand or less. already officially 39015 ..dark numbers? ...still only 18th of April 2020...long way till next year or 2022 Yesterday a plus of 1867 death...proved officially ...dark numbers? Yes, dark numbers. But nothing like 2,000,000.
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Post by outlier on Apr 19, 2020 22:59:17 GMT -5
If there are as many asymptomatic carriers as this suggests, the mortality rate could be MUCH lower, still twice that of the flu, but 1/15 to 1/20 of current estimates. www.newsweek.com/covid-19-coronavirus-antibodies-infection-higher-14987400.2% of 350 million is still 70,000...but that's fairly close to the current models, and they're depending on avoidance rather than everyone getting it. The avoidance was fine for keeping hospitals from being overwhelmed, but it can't go on for months longer as it is now. What we need (until there are treatments and a vaccine) is to know more about how to identify the vulnerable. There are some indications that there's a genetic factor. With that knowledge, the focus could be on confining the vulnerable, rather than everyone. Isn't it pretty clear that the vulnerable are those with underlying chronic illnesses? I think the key to dealing with this problem is focusing our energy on getting enough tests manufactured to test everyone and then quarantine only the infected. That basically the way we have always dealt with infectious pandemics.
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Post by eulenspiegel on Apr 19, 2020 22:59:59 GMT -5
outlier Let‘s wait...and even a few 100.000....are still possible 2 million or more were the estimates if no lockdown, nothing done btw, the result of Trumps rants
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Post by BOGC on Apr 20, 2020 0:31:39 GMT -5
If there are as many asymptomatic carriers as this suggests, the mortality rate could be MUCH lower, still twice that of the flu, but 1/15 to 1/20 of current estimates. www.newsweek.com/covid-19-coronavirus-antibodies-infection-higher-14987400.2% of 350 million is still 70,000...but that's fairly close to the current models, and they're depending on avoidance rather than everyone getting it. The avoidance was fine for keeping hospitals from being overwhelmed, but it can't go on for months longer as it is now. What we need (until there are treatments and a vaccine) is to know more about how to identify the vulnerable. There are some indications that there's a genetic factor. With that knowledge, the focus could be on confining the vulnerable, rather than everyone. Isn't it pretty clear that the vulnerable are those with underlying chronic illnesses? I think the key to dealing with this problem is focusing our energy on getting enough tests manufactured to test everyone and then quarantine only the infected. That basically the way we have always dealt with infectious pandemics. Partly, yes. But blood type A seems to be more vulnerable, and there are indications that genetic differences affecting the ACE2 receptor might make some more or less vulnerable than others. Indeed, ACE2 related differences could relate to one of the known vulnerabilities, hypertension. Testing everyone (probably more than once!) is probably NOT POSSIBLE. I doubt anything could be scaled up to that in less than a year, and that's everyone tested just once some time in that year. Testing everyone is magic thinking, just like imagining unlimited free stuff is magic thinking; or else it's propaganda, so that anything less than totally unlimited testing can be declared a failure. It's also tough because there are some people coming in even now; can't close down international travel for two years. And it's probably not necessary; some fraction of the total, properly distributed geographically and across different sorts of communities (including the homeless) would be enough to give far more accurate predictions of the whole, esp. a dual antibody test that can tell whether you've got it or whether you've had it and gotten over it. If we know the number exposed and recovered accurately, and if it's high enough, we'd know if and when herd immunity may kick in, too. Those without their own immunity would still be at some risk...but there'd be a lot less circulating. Until there's a vaccine, we have to expect that everyone will be infected, sooner or later; some information suggests that at LEAST 30% in some areas have already been infected, but most show no symptoms. If we understood a little more about how to identify the vulnerable (a MUCH smaller number than everyone, and something that could at least partly be done with medical histories rather than testing, but perhaps some maybes could be ruled in or out with a genetic or other test), we could only quarantine them, until there's good treatments or a vaccine. Saying do X (whatever that is) for everyone is almost always crazy talk, the sort of nonsense that AOC and Squad and Bernie come up with. edit: current testing is about 150k/day. Expectation is that can be doubled quickly. Even with that doubling, it would take over three years to test everyone; and we're expecting a vaccine in one to two years. Even with another doubling, it's doubtful that "test everyone" would get there before the vaccine. Nobody can just issue orders and make stuff happen.
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Post by BOGC on Apr 20, 2020 0:33:13 GMT -5
outlier Let‘s wait...and even a few 100.000....are still possible 2 million or more were the estimates if no lockdown, nothing done btw, the result of Trumps rants Another Russian or Chinese troll notion, trying to blame every crazy on Trump. Crazies are out there, and nobody but them knows what will set them off.
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Post by eulenspiegel on Apr 20, 2020 1:02:08 GMT -5
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Post by BOGC on Apr 20, 2020 1:25:44 GMT -5
Ooh, protester with scary black rifle. Great! It's called liberty! Guess how many protesters with scary black rifles have turned out to be mass shooters...probably NONE of them. Oh, and in states/localities that allow open carry, the Black Panthers (yes, they're black, and more or less separatists too, so probably more racist than these guys, unless you subscribe to the notion that only the majority is capable of being racist) have been known to take advantage of it too...and although I disagree with them, they did it in a reasonably responsible manner, AFAIK. So, wrong on both counts, thanks for playing. We're NOT the rest of the world, and those of us who value liberty are glad of that. edit: even in the military, I never shot anything but paper targets with a scary black rifle (or with anything else), and unless I decide that I'm willing to be uncomfortable enough to go deer hunting (possible with a different caliber upper), I hope I never have to. But if it's me or someone I protect vs some bad guys, and there's no better option, they're going down, decision already made. Oh, and the bayonet isn't practical, but it just might convince bad guys I was badder than they were. I will if I have to, but I REALLY don't want to. "Bad guys" might (but hopefully won't!) as an absolute last resort include the government itself.
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Post by eulenspiegel on Apr 20, 2020 1:36:46 GMT -5
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Post by eulenspiegel on Apr 20, 2020 1:40:20 GMT -5
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Post by eulenspiegel on Apr 20, 2020 2:10:54 GMT -5
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