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Post by outlier on Apr 15, 2020 20:49:29 GMT -5
The experts advised, and Trump took their advice, period. Maybe if we had someone gifted with magic foresight ... Has Trump taken the experts advice on climate change? Building a wall on the Mexican border? On de-funding WHO? He uses experts only when they are a convenient excuse. We obviously need to find those people with magic foresight who seem to exist only in Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Korea. Magic foresight seems to be sorely lacking in American and Europe. One thing that has emerged from this pandemic is an better understanding of how horribly wrong the predictions of models of complex systems can be. So the climate change models, along with their predictions have lost a great deal of credibility. As for the wall, Trump listened to the experts - the men guarding our border, and pretty much built it to their specifications.
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Post by eulenspiegel on Apr 15, 2020 21:04:58 GMT -5
Has Trump taken the experts advice on climate change? Building a wall on the Mexican border? On de-funding WHO? He uses experts only when they are a convenient excuse. We obviously need to find those people with magic foresight who seem to exist only in Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Korea. Magic foresight seems to be sorely lacking in American and Europe. One thing that has emerged from this pandemic is an better understanding of how horribly wrong the predictions of models of complex systems can be. So the climate change models, along with their predictions have lost a great deal of credibility. As for the wall, Trump listened to the experts - the men guarding our border, and pretty much built it to their specifications. ? The models are/were on point...Trump just did not believed them...and now USA is in great ... As I said I never was a big fan of Merkel but she is a scientist..and explained it today on point...
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Post by Kanye East on Apr 15, 2020 21:18:04 GMT -5
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Post by eulenspiegel on Apr 15, 2020 21:25:47 GMT -5
One thing that has emerged from this pandemic is an better understanding of how horribly wrong the predictions of models of complex systems can be. So the climate change models, along with their predictions have lost a great deal of credibility. As for the wall, Trump listened to the experts - the men guarding our border, and pretty much built it to their specifications. ? The models are/were on point...Trump just did not believed them...and now USA is in great ... As I said I never was a big fan of Merkel but she is a scientist..and explained it today on point... With German subtitles...if I find English..
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Post by eulenspiegel on Apr 15, 2020 21:40:04 GMT -5
? The models are/were on point...Trump just did not believed them...and now USA is in great ... As I said I never was a big fan of Merkel but she is a scientist..and explained it today on point... With German subtitles...if I find English.. English subtitles
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Post by 1 Guest on Apr 15, 2020 22:10:08 GMT -5
There's still a few online. And like you said, the internet is forever.
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Post by 1 Guest on Apr 15, 2020 22:15:44 GMT -5
It is not China's responsibility to ban international flights. It is up to each country to take whatever steps necessary to protect themselves. My understanding (from mainstream news) is that China allowed international flights, but not domestic flights, out of the Wuhan region for a period of a week preceding any warning to the rest of the world about the virus. That's what they did. But socalfan doesn't have a problem with that. It was up to the rest of the world to protect themselves from something they didn't know existed. Consider the source.
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Post by 1 Guest on Apr 15, 2020 22:18:42 GMT -5
? The models are/were on point...Trump just did not believed them...and now USA is in great ... As I said I never was a big fan of Merkel but she is a scientist..and explained it today on point... With German subtitles...if I find English.. LMAO, like I'm going to listen to what that idiot has to say after what she's done to Germany. Give me a freakin break.
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Post by eulenspiegel on Apr 15, 2020 22:44:05 GMT -5
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Post by eulenspiegel on Apr 15, 2020 22:45:39 GMT -5
No evidence of clinical efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 infection with oxygen requirement: results of a study using routinely collected data to emulate a target trial Matthieu Mahevas, View ORCID ProfileViet-Thi Tran, Mathilde Roumier, Amelie Chabrol, Romain Paule, Constance Guillaud, Sebastien Gallien, Raphael Lepeule, Tali-Anne Szwebel, Xavier Lescure, Frederic Schlemmer, Marie Matignon, Mehdi Khellaf, Etienne Crickx, Benjamin Terrier, Caroline Morbieu, Paul Legendre, Julien Dang, Yoland Schoindre, Jean-Michel Pawlotski, Marc Michel, Elodie Perrodeau, Nicolas Carlier, Nicolas Roche, Victoire De Lastours, Luc Mouthon, Etienne Audureau, Philippe Ravaud, Bertrand Godeau, Nathalie Costedoat doi: doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060699www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060699v1
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Post by BOGC on Apr 16, 2020 6:55:04 GMT -5
It is not China's responsibility to ban international flights. It is up to each country to take whatever steps necessary to protect themselves. My understanding (from mainstream news) is that China allowed international flights, but not domestic flights, out of the Wuhan region for a period of a week preceding any warning to the rest of the world about the virus. That is one of the reasons why I think it highly likely that their senior leadership wanted to make sure that whatever disadvantage China suffered, the rest of the world would suffer too. Of course, any actual discussion of that by senior leaders would only have been under the most secure conditions, which we either can't get ahold of, or probably won't compromise our ability to do so in the future by disclosing it. So absolute proof may not happen. But given their delaying or falsifying complete information release (initial denial of human-to-human transmission, massive under-reporting of fatalities as indicated by urn orders and crematorium activity), subsequent propaganda, interfering with protective gear supplies, providing as "aid" substandard gear and equipment, etc, the pattern of events seems very strongly suggestive that there was a choice to engage in action and inaction that was effectively if unprovably hostile. If it was provable...it would be an act of war against the entire planet...another reason proof might not appear, because it would serve little purpose to advertise that there are limits to what the US or US+NATO even could do about it. Further add tentative indications that the Chinese are conducting low-power nuclear weapons tests in violation of the Test Ban Treaty. www.wsj.com/articles/possible-chinese-nuclear-testing-stirs-u-s-concern-11586970435Their government is at this time, at the very heart of evil in the world. And they continue to censor any information that might imply even inadvertent culpability on their part. The following was pulled, but captured by the Wayback Machine (archive.org) first: web.archive.org/web/20200214144447/https:/www.researchgate.net/publication/339070128_The_possible_origins_of_2019-nCoV_coronavirus
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Post by Socal Fan on Apr 16, 2020 9:09:05 GMT -5
My understanding (from mainstream news) is that China allowed international flights, but not domestic flights, out of the Wuhan region for a period of a week preceding any warning to the rest of the world about the virus. That's what they did. But socalfan doesn't have a problem with that. It was up to the rest of the world to protect themselves from something they didn't know existed. Consider the source. So somehow, Singapore HK Taiwan Korea were able to protect themselves from "something they didn't know existed". Did they have magical powers?
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Post by Socal Fan on Apr 16, 2020 9:13:19 GMT -5
It is not China's responsibility to ban international flights. It is up to each country to take whatever steps necessary to protect themselves. My understanding (from mainstream news) is that China allowed international flights, but not domestic flights, out of the Wuhan region for a period of a week preceding any warning to the rest of the world about the virus. So how were Singapore HK Taiwan Korea able to protect themselves without warning when US and Europe could not?
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Post by 1 Guest on Apr 16, 2020 10:49:29 GMT -5
That's what they did. But socalfan doesn't have a problem with that. It was up to the rest of the world to protect themselves from something they didn't know existed. Consider the source. So somehow, Singapore HK Taiwan Korea were able to protect themselves from "something they didn't know existed". Did they have magical powers? The population of those countries, even Korea, is very small compared to the US and EU so undoubtedly they had less international travel from China. And of course we know that it didn't spread throughout China because they have magical powers, but rather because they stopped domestic travel because they knew what would happen if they didn't. I'm curious to know what you would have done had you been in charge in the US or EU that would have helped. And remember, you didn't know the truth. If you have magical powers it's a real shame you didn't use them.
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Post by BOGC on Apr 16, 2020 11:07:39 GMT -5
So somehow, Singapore HK Taiwan Korea were able to protect themselves from "something they didn't know existed". Did they have magical powers? They had direct experience of the previous SARS outbreak (SARS 1 fatality rate was roughly 3x higher, although they'd controlled it well, so they were VERY motivated), and were prepared to deal with another one and probably watching, not just as something on a (long!) list of stuff to watch for, but as something that sooner or later WOULD hit them (at least) again. And Hong Kong may have been tipped off, since that's also under PRC control. Although no mass-produced tests existed until March, Taiwan started screening inbound passengers at least for symptoms VERY early, around December 31, long before the PRC or WHO acknowledged human-to-human transmission (January 20). All of them used intrusive testing, contact tracing, and selective (but enforced) quarantines. We do NOT have a central authority that can assume such powers in advance of the emergency already being here. That's one of the costs of liberty, and I prefer liberty to safety, along with old Ben. Neither Hillary nor any other Democrat would have done significantly better, IMO. In some respects, they'd have done worse, since they are far more comfortable with the bureaucratic nature of government (red tape) - they've contributed more than their share. They might have issued SOME orders sooner, but probably with less focus. And since Trump _is_ listening to Fauci and Birx, not with any better advice. Most of what we did was at the speed it could be done. There was about a week delay in early testing due to defective tests, and existing procedures needed considerable changes to scale up faster (our testing lagged until mid-March, but scaled faster than anyone else's after that). Picking one thing in hindsight that would have helped (especially NYC) is if the ban on travelers from Europe had been two weeks earlier...but given the pushback on the earlier China travel ban, that would have been very difficult. There was pushback on the Europe ban, since Trump didn't waste time talking about it to the Europeans first. I doubt even with our present test scaling maintained to implausible levels, that we (or anyone else) will ever be able to test everyone, certainly not repeatedly (as would ideally be necessary). Although with less labor and PPE intensive testing, we might be able to do quite a bit.
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